2025 DFW Real Estate Forecast: Home Prices Predicted to Drop
Our latest DFW real estate market analysis reveals the exact scenario for a price correction to occur. Discover what this means for you.
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The DFW real estate market is always moving and dynamic, and the first couple of months of 2025 have proven to be no different.
So, let’s dive into the latest trends, backed by the most recent data from the North Texas Real Estate Information System (NTREIS), to give you a comprehensive overview of current real estate market conditions.
First, let’s go over the top, most recent housing news and facts. Then, you’ll get a thorough break down of the lastest housing statistics and insights for Dallas-Fort Worth, including median home prices by county, months of inventory, new listings, closed sales, days on market, pending sales, and more. And we’ll close with our best advice to buyers and sellers in the market right now (or soon to be).
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has just released its 2024 report profiling home buyers and sellers:
The average age of both buys and sellers continues to trend upward as affordability becomes a problem and also continues to push the age up of first time home buyers, which hit 38-years-old this year, up from 35 last year.
Because I know this is what’s most important to you, let’s start off by looking at the current median home prices, by county, throughout the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex. I’ll also provide a glimpse into how today’s prices measure up to last year’s:
County | Home Price | Year-over-Year Change |
Dallas | $345,000 | -1.4% |
Kaufman | $324,275 | +1.7% |
Rockwall | $400,000 | +2.6% |
Hunt | $297,837 | +2.7% |
Collin | $464,895 | -2.7% |
Denton | $443,037 | +0.9% |
Tarrant | $340,000 | +1.5% |
The increasing housing supply indicates a shift towards a more balanced market. Sellers are becoming more flexible, often reducing prices and offering concessions. We’re seeing this with home builders as well.
County | Months Supply | Year-over-Year Change |
Dallas | 3.7 | +42.3% |
Kaufman | 4.5 | +7.1% |
Rockwall | 5.0 | +47.1% |
Hunt | 5.4 | +25.6% |
Collin | 3.3 | +50.0% |
Denton | 3.3 | +50.0% |
Tarrant | 3.2 | +33.3% |
If you’re thinking of selling, you’ll find these numbers of particular interest. Below is a chart revealing the year-over-year change in number of new listings by county, as well as the average number of days homes are sitting on the market.
County | New Listings Change | Average Days on Market |
Dallas | +24.9% | 57 |
Kaufman | +30.1% | 85 |
Rockwall | +8.1% | 83 |
Hunt | +6.9% | 70 |
Collin | +22.9% | 66 |
Denton | +17.4% | 64 |
Tarrant | +14.5% | 62 |
The number of closed sales decreased sharply across the region last month as interest rates rose again.
County | Decrease in Closed Since Last Month |
Dallas | -25% |
Kaufman | -48% |
Rockwall | -32% |
Hunt | -28% |
Collin | -28% |
Denton | -28% |
Tarrant | -35% |
Now that interest rates have gone down somewhat this past week, and we’re beginning to advance further into the year, let’s look and see what’s happening with market activity and sales currently.
The pending sales tell us what the future closed sales will look like for the next month. So, where are we now? Let’s compare pending sales for January 2025 to pending sales in January 2024:
County | Year-over-Year Change in Pending Sales |
Dallas | -19.3% |
Kaufman | -12.7% |
Rockwall | -22.2% |
Hunt | -18.9% |
Collin | -14.7% |
Denton | -16.9% |
Tarrant | -21.8% |
On average, pending sales are down 15-20% across the metroplex, which means in the scheme of things, they’re pretty far down. Because last year marked the lowest number of home sales in 30 years, according to the National Association of Realtors.
“This persistent increase in prices and interest rates has created a challenging environment for both first-time buyers and those looking to move up the property ladder,” the data firm CoreLogic noted last month.
So, here’s the important part – here’s what your situation looks like right now as a buyer or seller in the DFW market:
Whether you’re looking to buy or sell, the current market presents both opportunities and challenges. At M&D Real Estate, we’re committed to providing personalized service to help you navigate these market conditions the best we can.
Please reach out to our office if you would like a complimentary CMA (Comparative Market Analysis). We can look up what recent homes have sold for in your neighborhood and identify any special features of your home that would impact sales price to get you an accurate value on what your home is worth today.
Whether you’re looking to buy or sell soon, or have a friend or family member in the market, M&D Real Estate is here to serve you. Our priority is clients first. We’ll do everything we can to get you the best deal on your home purchase or the sale of your property.
Our latest DFW real estate market analysis reveals the exact scenario for a price correction to occur. Discover what this means for you.
Whether you’re wondering how to advertise rental property effectively or looking to minimize vacancy periods, this comprehensive guide will walk you through proven strategies to attract qualified tenants quickly and maximize your property’s exposure in 2025.
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