How to Buy Your First Home in 2025: A 6-Month Roadmap That Actually Works
Follow our practical 6-month roadmap to go from renter to homeowner in 2025. Get step-by-step guidance on finances, loans, house hunting, and closing the deal.
The American housing landscape is experiencing a remarkable transformation in 2025, with an extraordinary imbalance between property sellers and potential buyers. Current market data from Redfin reveals approximately 1.9 million sellers attempting to offload their properties while only about 1.5 million buyers are actively searching for homes. This creates a surplus of roughly 490,000 sellers in the national housing market—a 33.7% imbalance that stands as the most significant disparity since data collection began in 2013, reports Redfin.
This seller surplus represents a profound shift in market dynamics. Just one year ago, sellers outnumbered buyers by a modest 6.5%, and looking back two years, the market actually favored sellers with buyers outnumbering those looking to sell. The current 33.7% gap between supply and demand signals a fundamental change in market conditions that hasn’t been observed in over a decade of record-keeping.
Market analysts project this imbalance will exert downward pressure on home values.
For prospective buyers, this forecast offers a potential silver lining after years of challenging conditions. The combination of increased inventory and softening prices may enhance purchasing power for those entering the market. Conversely, homeowners considering selling might benefit from listing sooner rather than later, before the full impact of price adjustments materializes.
The national trend toward a buyer’s market isn’t uniform across all regions. Analysis of the top 50 metropolitan areas reveals that 31 markets now favor buyers—a significant majority.
Dallas County now has 5 months of inventory – 4 to 6 months is a balanced market and 6 months+ is typically a buyers market. So Dallas is moving that direction. In addition, the median home price in Dallas County have fallen 5.2% from this time a year ago in the latest numbers out from the North Texas Real Estate Information System (NTREIS) – from $385,000 to $365,000.
For buyers, the current market presents opportunities not seen in years. With significantly more sellers than buyers, purchasers can negotiate more aggressively on price, request more substantial concessions, and take more time making decisions without fear of losing properties to competing offers.
Sellers face a more challenging environment requiring strategic adjustments. Competitive pricing, professional staging, and property improvements may become necessary to stand out in an increasingly crowded marketplace. Sellers should also prepare for longer listing periods and potentially more complex negotiations.
At M&D, we provide our clients with data-driven guidance that acknowledges the fundamental shift in market dynamics. We also offer the most premium marketing package available today, all for the same standard commission fees charged by all REALTORS.
As the housing market continues its adjustment through 2025, both buyers and sellers will need to recalibrate their expectations and strategies to navigate what appears to be the most significant market rebalancing in more than a decade.
The price of a home has increased 40% since 2019, according to NTREIS. In 2019, the median home price in Dallas County was $260,000. Now, it’s $365,000.
Then, mortgage rates started increasing as well… In 2020, the average 30 year mortgage rate was 3.38%. Today, it’s about 6.73%.
So, elevated home prices combined with higher mortgage rates have locked a large number of buyers out of the market. This has created the largest discrepancy ever recorded between number of home sellers and number of buyers actively searching for homes. Again, this will inevitably push prices downward – as we’ve seen this past month with prices falling 5.2% in Dallas County alone.
Prior to the pandemic’s market disruptions, a notable example of this dynamic occurred in 2018. That November, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 4.87%—the highest level in nearly eight years and approximately one percentage point above the previous year’s rate. The market response was revealing: by December, sellers outnumbered buyers by 9.4%, marking the largest such imbalance since 2015 and reversing the previous year’s buyer-dominant market.
The consequences materialized quickly. Within three months, home price growth contracted to its lowest level in at least six years, with prices increasing just 2% year-over-year to $283,912. This pattern demonstrates how shifts in the buyer-seller balance can serve as leading indicators for price movements.
The current housing landscape presents both challenges and opportunities depending on one’s position in the market. For buyers with secure financial situations, the increasing inventory and potential price moderation may create more favorable negotiating conditions than have existed in recent years. Conversely, again, sellers may need to adjust price expectations and marketing strategies to attract buyers in an environment where options are expanding.
Understanding these historical patterns and current market dynamics provides valuable context for anyone navigating today’s complex housing market. While each real estate cycle has unique characteristics, the fundamental relationship between supply-demand imbalances and price movements remains a reliable framework for anticipating market direction.
As economic conditions continue to evolve and mortgage rates respond to broader financial trends, monitoring the buyer-seller ratio will remain a crucial indicator for those seeking to time their entry into—or exit from—the housing market.
Follow our practical 6-month roadmap to go from renter to homeowner in 2025. Get step-by-step guidance on finances, loans, house hunting, and closing the deal.
The Dallas-Fort Worth housing market has shifted to favor buyers in 2025, with inventory up 53% and 66% of homes selling below list price. See county-by-county data and what it means for you.
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