Deep Dive into Dallas-Fort Worth Housing Market

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Deep Dive into the Dallas Fort Worth Housing Market
The Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) housing market has seen a mix of trends and dynamics, reflecting shifts in buyer and seller behaviors, mortgage rates, and the overall economy of the Lone Star State.

Overview of the DFW Housing Market

The Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) housing market has seen a mix of trends and dynamics, reflecting shifts in buyer and seller behaviors, mortgage rates, and the overall economy of the Lone Star State.

In many ways, this quote sums up what we’re facing in the current housing market…

“With many homeowners “locked in” at ultra-low interest rates under 4%, housing demand continues to outpace housing supply—and likely will for a while—even as some homeowners may finally be forced to sell due to major life events such as divorce, job changes or a growing family,” reports Forbes.

Here’s an in-depth look at the latest developments, including with price changes, market dynamics, interest rates, and more.

In Depth Look at DFW Housing Market Interest Rates and More

DFW Housing Market Performance Highlights

Sales Trends

  • Last month, Texas experienced a 3.6% year-over-year increase in home sales. However, the DFW area witnessed a downturn, with sales dropping between 20 to 30% across the metroplex.

Mortgage Rates

  • Mortgage rates have risen past the 7% mark for the first time since December 2023, marking a significant increase from the mid-6% range.

Market Dynamics

  • Despite higher mortgage rates, there’s been an uptick in mortgage applications, suggesting that buyers are eager to lock in rates before any further increases.
  • The stand-still in the housing market persists with lower transactions and less activity year over year, fueled by homeowners enjoying sub-4% interest rates, reluctant to move unless necessary.
  • More listings have started to balance the market, transitioning from a strong seller’s market to a more equilibrium state in much of the metroplex.
Market Dynamics in Dallas Fort Worth include a halt and standstill

Financial Insights

  • Predictions for 2024 suggest mortgage rates will oscillate between 6% and 7%, not likely falling back to 5%.
  • Homeownership profitability: Current trends indicate that selling now could yield an additional 10 to 12% in profits, roughly translating to a $30,000 advantage.

Detailed Market Analysis of DFW's Residential Real Estate Market

Average Home Prices

The median home price in North Texas has seen a modest increase to $395,000, with notable variations across counties.

  • Kaufman County: 9% increase to $363,485.
  • Dallas County: 14.2% increase to $519,537.
  • Rockwall County: 1.5% decrease to $489,735.
  • Collin County: 6.9% increase to $605,773.
  • Hunt County: 5.2% increase to $330,101.
Average Sales price

Days on Market

The time listings spend on the market varies widely and is all over the place, with some areas seeing increases and others experiencing decreases.

  • 58 in Rockwall County, up 3.6% year over year.
  • 61 in Kaufman County, down 10.3% year over year.
  • 38 in Dallas County, 0% change year over year.
  • 65 in Hunt County, up 27.5% year over year.
  • 31 in Collin County, down 26.2% year over year.

Inventory Levels

Inventory supply has seen significant increases, moving many parts of North Texas towards a balanced market versus the sellers’ market we have been in for years now.

  • Up 45.8% in Rockwall County to 3.5 months
  • Up 58.1% in Kaufman County to 4.9 months.
  • Up 44.4% to 2.6 months in Dallas County.
  • Up 57.1% to 2.2 months in Collin County.
  • Up 42.4% to 4.7 months in Hunt County.
 

Typically, 4 to 6 months inventory is considered a balanced market, which is what we’re seeing right now in many areas of North Texas, while Dallas and Collin County are still in seller’s markets.

Housing Opportunities

Homes For Sale

There’s been a general increase in available listings and new listings across the board, reflecting a more active market.

  • New Listings in Rockwall County are up 3.4% to 215 new listings.
  • New Listings in Kaufman County are up 20% to 342 new listings.
  • New Listings in Dallas County are up 10% to 2,556 new listings.
  • New Listings in Hunt County are up 4.2% to 175 new listings.
  • New listings in Collin County are up 23.4% to 1,590 new listings.

Pending & Closed Sales

Pending sales show mixed trends, while closed sales have generally declined across the metroplex, with a notable exception for high-value homes in Dallas County.

  • Pending sales were a little all over the place this past month, which is a leading indicator into April’s closed sales. 
  • Pending sales were up 9.1% in Rockwall County, up 3.4% in Kaufman County, down .3% in Dallas County, up 1.4% in Collin County, and then down 16.1% in Hunt County.
  • Closed sales last month were still down year over year across the board by about 7% in the metroplex. About 8,020 homes were sold last month, according to MetroTex Association of Realtors.
Pending and Closed Sales are Down in Dallas Fort Worth

New Construction

  • New construction has surged, with a significant jump in units started in the first quarter of 2024.
  • In the first quarter of 2024, builders started construction on 14,217 units, up 44.7% from this time in 2023. Additionally, during the first quarter, there were 1,002 rental units started.
  • Build-to-rent communities now represent 10.4% of North Texas’ new home starts.

Population Growth & Housing Demand

DFW continues to lead in population growth, attracting a substantial number of residents from other states, driven by housing affordability and quality of life.

In fact, a new report out by Texas Realtors says that an estimated 102,000 Californians moved to Texas in 2022. Additionally, more than 41,000 people from Florida relocated to Texas and so did 30,000 individuals from New York.

All total, more than 668,000 people moved to Texas from other states in 2022.

Cost difference in housing and other standard of living factors weigh most heavily on people’s decisions to relocate to the lone star state. The addition of new people creates more demand for housing, which keeps prices stable even as transactions slow down.

Selling Your Home

According to Realtor.com, the prime time for listing homes in Dallas is mid-April, aligning with the peak in buyer activity and reduced competition. May through September remains the preferred window for selling, with June often seen as the most advantageous month in other reports.

  • The Realtor.com study found that from April 14-April 20, homes sold 17% faster, prices were typically 10% higher than at start of the year (about $34,000 more on average), and that there were 22.8% more buyers are looking for homes during this timeframe compared to the average week. There were also fewer price reductions, a decrease in about 24.6% of homes listed that typically would see a price decrease if it were a different time of year.
  • For Dallas, the same Realtor.com study showed that the best week to start selling your home was actually April 21, this week, while prices are typically up by $34,000 over start of the year at this time in DFW, and that there’s an additional 26.9% of buyers looking right now on their website compared to normal.
    • Plus, the study reports that there are 42.5% less price reductions during this period, and it takes on average 12 days less to sell the home. There are also typically 16.9% less active listings on the market in mid to late April, resulting in less competition for you as a home seller.
  • However, the consensus varies slightly and according to Texas Real Estate Source, they consider May through September the peak selling season, with June being their primary pick. Then, BankRate reports that sellers net an average of a whopping 12.8% more when they choose to list in June, making that the best month to be on the market.
 

Overall, the evidence shows that listing between April and June is the peak time to get your house on the market if you’re looking to make a move soon. 

If this is the case for you, please reach out to an M&D Real Estate Professional. M&D Agents are all rated 5-Stars and come backed by a full, in-house professional marketing team providing you with the most comprehensive exposure package in the industry and the same standard commission rates.

Final Summary on DFW Housing Market

The DFW housing market is undergoing interesting shifts.

Mortgage rates are up but so are mortgage applications – indicating people are getting more used to the new normal, which is higher interest rates than what we were seeing the past couple of years.

Those considering selling should aim for the optimal listing period to maximize returns.

As always, staying informed and working with experienced real estate professionals can help navigate these dynamic market conditions.

If you need any real estate advice or services, please reach out to an M&D Real Estate professional. We would be happy to serve you. And, remember, M&D is a full-service firm, offering you commercial, residential, and property management services all under one roof.

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