Dallas-Fort Worth Housing Market Heats Up in 2024

with Surging Inventory, Some Price Increases, and More Closed Sales in 2024 — and, with Even More Activity Expected on the Horizon!

Introduction to Dallas-Fort Worth Housing Market Update as of February 2024

It’s time for a market update, and it is going to be a fun market update. So let’s dive in.

How is the 2024 real estate season starting off?

To explore what’s happening, I am going to take you through a county-by-county breakdown of the D-FW real estate market.

We ended last year flat, we were stalled out as far as transactions go, prices were barely up year over year, and there were a lot of predictions made as far as inventory goes – about it increasing by as much as 30% and predictions made about seeing transactions recover – and then, more real estate being sold because of all that.

So let’s see what’s happening today. I’m just going to dig in and get started on that more detailed update, county-by-county, so you can really see what’s going on in this market whether you’re a homeowner staying up to date, someone thinking of selling, or if you’re thinking of buying soon.

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Dallas-Fort Worth Sees Pockets of Price Surges

When we look at the average sales price across North Texas, Rockwall County was up 9% in January!

Kaufman County was down almost 4%, Collin County was down 2%, and then Dallas County was up 15%!

So, basically, we are all over the place. In the areas where you see less new construction, you tend to see more price increase because they’re still dealing with the inventory problem.

And that’s one thing I want to point out on this update is that I’m going to talk to you, the homeowner.

Because if I pull in new construction? It doesn’t show you your exact scenario.

I know for you, the buyer, you may would like to understand what’s going on in the new construction market.

But today, I want to really get more into detail and help you, the seller, and help you understand how the market is going to change this year and what we’re seeing so far.

So, all these numbers I’m giving you, county-by-county are going to be about existing home sales.

And to wrap up the discussion on sales price, as far as average price goes, we saw it stabilize to increase just a little bit if we were to take an average across all four of those counties in the region.

Days on Market is Up as Home Inventory Rises in D-FW in 2024

Now, we are going to look at how long homes are sitting on the market.

Rockwall County was at 63 days, up 24% almost, and Kaufman County was up 7%, then Collin County was actually down 15% and Dallas County was up 7%.

In general, it looks like we’re seeing the days on market is increasing, which is what we would expect if we’re seeing more inventory in this new year.

And, it’s still not a very long time to be on the market from a historical perspective.

So, again, it’s kind of all over the place and would just depend on where you’re at — meaning what county, what neighborhood, etc. to tell you exactly what the days on market would be for you.

But in general, it is slightly increasing over last year.

And remember, last year we began to see homes stay on the market longer. So, it’s increasing over that.

Months Supply of Housing Inventory Edges Up

This measurement tells you whether you are in a seller’s market, balanced market or a buyer’s market in D-FW in general.

We have been in nothing but a seller’s market, and we are still technically in a seller’s market in most areas of D-FW.

Right now, we are looking at Rockwall County sitting at 3.2 months inventory, so up 52% year over year. And then Kaufman County is at 3.8 months, so up 27%.

So, in talking about getting to that pause where you begin to get into balance, Rockwall and Kaufman County are really starting to get there. These counties are inching closer towards that balanced market. But, I still would lean toward calling it more of a seller’s market (except homes are sitting longer).

Then, in Collin County, we are at 1.6 months inventory now, which is actually an unbelievable increase from what it was last year. And then in Dallas County, we are at 2.1 months inventory.

So, in Collin and Dallas County, you are still in a very strong seller’s markets.

We’re seeing that slow down somewhat, but they’re still unbelievable seller’s markets.

So, if you’re a seller, you’re still in a seller’s market in those counties for sure.

If you’re in Rockwall or Kaufman County, however, you’re beginning to lose a little leverage and getting toward more of a balanced market at this time.

Number of Homes For Sale in Dallas-Fort Worth

This is an indicator of the amount of inventory we have available. And this is always our biggest culprit. The biggest problem with the prices going up still is because we just don’t have enough inventory. It’s also the biggest reason why transactions have been in a recession for the past almost two years now.

Rockwall County is up 28%, Kaufman County is up 4%, Collin County is down 1% and Dallas County is up 7%.

So, in general, again, we’re a bit all over the place.

But, from a 28% increase in Rockwall to a decrease in Collin County, I would say overall, we are still seeing more homes for sale in January 2024, especially over January of last year.

Again, that’s a good thing. We need that.

We need inventory to get our market here in D-FW to move again, and so we need more new listings.

As Predicted, New Listings On the Rise in Dallas-Fort Worth

This is the big one. This is the biggest statistic I think, that we’ll talk about today.

This is telltale for what’s going on in our market here in D-FW – and it is what we expected to see, which is more listings coming in.

More people are listing their homes for sale, there are more options for you as a buyer. This is because people are getting used to the “new, new,” which is the interest rate environment hovering around 6 to 7%.

And people just get discontent by nature, and we want a new home. We want something new and shiny, or we want to downsize. We’re tired of this big house, and we can only sit so long. And that’s our human nature. And that’s what we’re beginning to see trickle in here at the beginning of 2024.

For new listings, Rockwall County is up 58% in January. That is that is back to 2019 levels, pre-pandemic levels of new listings coming in. So that’s a good sign for our market.

Kaufman County is up 8%, Collin County is up almost 13%, and Dallas County is up 12.6%.

So, across the board, we’re seeing more inventory compared to last year.

Now, again, last year was anemic. We need to see more like the Rockwall numbers all across the metroplex, the 57% type increases, to really move the whole D-FW market forward.

But, the predictions that I made and that all of those in the general consensus predicted was that we were going to see 30% more inventory come in 2024.

So, what does that mean for you?

For the seller, this could mean that we could see prices stay where they’re at and maybe even correct year over year for us a small amount.

But on the buy side, that gives you more options. It gives you more leverage, and it gives you more of a healthy real estate market for those of us that would love to make moves, which we all do eventually.

So, that’s good news for you as a home seller and buyer. Because ultimately, even if you’re a seller, you might take a little bit of a hit on the price, but you’re able going to be able to find something now to purchase whereas the last three years you haven’t been able to do that. So, all of that’s good news.

I expect to see this number continue to increase over the next few months as I do these updates and we get into the true listing season, which is really April through August. That’s where we see the most activity here in the housing market.

Pending Sales Down, But Closed Sales Were Up

So, what are sales looking like for the start of 2024? And the answer is, they’re all over the place. About like many of the other metrics. But, I would say it’s beginning to indicate we’re getting tremors – this past January, you’ll see here in a minute, we got a tremor…

Rockwall County is down 12%, Kaufman County is down 34% almost, Collin County is down 13%, and Dallas County is down 5%. So, sales going into February, over February of last year, are looking down.

But, we also need to look at what happened in January 2024 on closed sales over January of last year.

Rockwall County was actually up 21%, Kaufman County up 4%, Collin County up 23%, and Dallas County up 9%.

So, we saw quite a big bump in closed sales over January of 2023.

Then what happened? Well, then it pulled back.

What happens is you see those bumps in sales go up as this market is shifting to a more normal market of transactions. Why? Because you’re going to get sales and then, that draws down the level of inventory, so that you see sales slow down once again.

And that’s what I believe we’re seeing.

Because we saw the bump in sales in January, and now, we’re seeing what looks like a drop in sales for February, year over year.

And honestly, I think we’re just going to bounce back and forth like that this year.

But at least, hopefully, to better levels and more transactions overall for 2024.

That means for you, the home seller and buyer, that you have more opportunities to make a move. It’s going to be easier to sell and buy a home all in one than it was last year.

Summary & What to Expect with Interest Rates in 2024

So, in general, just to summarize, we’re just seeing tremors of more activity, which is everybody getting used to the new, new, the higher interest rate environment.

And, we’re going to be in this higher interest rate environment for the foreseeable future.

You know, we just had a CPI read. It came in and showed that inflation is slowing, but it’s slowing at a slow pace. The job market is so strong.

So, personally, in my opinion, I don’t see much interest rate correction unless we have a big economic downturn, or a full blown recession in the United States this year.

I really believe this is the new, new we’re going to see. We might get a little bit of a correction in interest rates, but between six and 7% is what I expect to see in 2024, and that’s what everybody is getting used to — that new, new. And, ultimately, that is closer to the average historically as far as the 30 year mortgage goes – and, it’s healthier.

The way it was, with all the free money during COVID, we’ve seen what that did and what it caused, and the inflation, etc.

So, that’s our market update today.

We are looking forward to hitting this every month with you guys.

I think 2024 is going to be a fun year to be talking about real estate and please, reach out to us here at M&D Real Estate if you have any questions, whether you’re looking to buy or sell, and whether it’s residential, commercial, or property management transactions, we would love the opportunity to serve you.